Source: The Auto Industry Alone Will Blow the 1.5-Degree Carbon Budget
There is an additional problem with all these ICE cars: carbon lock-in. Someone buying an ICE-powered car in 2030 might be driving it for another 20 years, although finding a gas station might be problematic. But even if the manufacturers wanted to, finding batteries for the ice bubble 463 million vehicles is going to be interesting.1
The numbers being thrown around, over three-fourths of a billion new cars, are daunting; they haven’t even mentioned the upfront carbon released while building them all. The immediate Treehugger response to these numbers is to build fewer cars and provide alternatives. The study authors mentioned this in their conclusions: “A shift from individual transport systems such as passenger vehicles to public transport and non-energy mobility, such as cycling and walking, is essential and would reduce the required number of new BEVs.”
They also noted the difficulties ahead:
“To meet the 1.5°C goal, leading automakers must transition to 100 percent BEV sales by 2030. This must go hand in hand with expanding the required charging infrastructure and generating renewable electricity to charge EV batteries. Securing scarce raw materials for battery production sustainably is an additional challenge. Therefore, automakers must focus on the entire value chain of electromobility, which can have a positive mid- and long-term effect on company value.”
Whether by finding alternatives to lithium or getting everyone on bikes, we have to figure out how to not build about 463 million gasoline-powered cars in the next seven years.1 I keep saying that the hard truth is that we have to make hard choices right now instead of just letting 1.5 degrees sail by because it is too expensive or inconvenient. This is one of those hard choices.
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