Should the world follow China’s climate lead?

Source: Should the world follow China’s climate lead?

Dragon babies—children born during the Chinese Year of the Dragon, beginning in February—are considered particularly lucky. And they could be off to a good start, with researchers predicting that China’s roaring economy may reach peak carbon emissions during 2024. The babies will be joining a country that leads the world in solar power installation and electric vehicle production, and has more and faster high speed rail than any other. But it also produces the most emissions—at least a quarter of the planet’s greenhouse gases—and is building almost all the world’s new coal power stations. China is no stranger to ambitious national policies—the Great Leap Forward in the 1960s kickstarted its industrial might, but at the cost of millions of lives. Can, and should, Western democracies try to compete with the climate efficiency of an authoritarian one-party state?

…1.  More solar. If you blinked, you’ve missed the startling roll-out of China’s “whole country solar” program. China installed around 210 gigawatts of solar panels last year alone—that’s twice what the US has in total, and four times what China installed in 2020. It can do this because grid connection, financing and contracting are largely centralized and streamlined, according to this fascinating in-depth look at China’s carbon footprint from Carbon Brief. China is now on track to have over 1000 gigawatts of solar installed by the end of 2026—about as much as the entire world has today.

2.  More nuclear. The big benefit of nuclear power is always-on, carbon-free electricity that can smooth out the peaks and troughs of renewables. Its big downsides are cost and delays that inevitably creep in. While China isn’t immune to public pressure and spiraling costs, it has the political heft to steamroller mega-projects through to completion. The World Nuclear Association notes that China has 26 nuclear power stations under construction, with another 6 to 8 being greenlit every year. And as with solar, China now wants to export its nuclear tech around the world—a market previously dominated by Russia.

3.  More EVs. Chinese carmaker BYD just overtook Tesla as the biggest seller of electric vehicles. The company has a highly integrated production model and a short supply chain, making its own batteries and selling entry-level models for as little as $10,000. Thanks to the government’s broad support for EVs, a rich supply of raw materials, subsidies for electric buses, taxis and cars, and public charging networks, China now accounts for nearly 60% of the world’s EV sales. Check out this recent deep dive into the Chinese EV market by the Harvard Business Review.

4.  Decoupling growth from emissions. There is some encouraging evidence that China’s climate policies are paying off. This insightful blog from Energy Monitor shows that while China’s GDP has increased by an order of magnitude since 1990, emissions per capita have only doubled. China appears to be achieving the tricky feat of decoupling growth from carbon emissions.