Shell’s net zero plan will be judged on science, not spin

Source: Shell’s net zero plan will be judged on science, not spin

…As climate scientists, we watched Shell’s latest pledge to reach net zero by 2050 with interest. Recently, we analysed the Shell Sky Scenario – its previous climate change scenario – as part of a study evaluating the hundreds of proposed pathways to mitigate climate change this century to stabilise temperature rise to 1.5C.

Each pathway makes different assumptions about climate policies, energy demand, reforestation, technologies for carbon dioxide removal, and renewables take-up. A general challenge with climate scenarios is whether they are based on realistic assumptions, and our analysis aims to transparently separate feasible from fantasy scenarios.

In a rigorous peer-reviewed analysis by 16 scientists, we found serious problems with the feasibility of Shell’s pathway. Among the over 400 climate scenarios included in the IPCC 1.5C report, only 50 scenarios take us towards a 1.5C future, with no or limited overshoot.

Among these 50, only 20 are based on realistic assumptions that global emissions must bend around 2020 at the latest to reach close to zero around 2050. We included Shell’s Sky Scenario as an additional reference, and it was by far, the one that most clearly lies outside the feasibility corridor to limit temperature rise to 1.5C. If the world emits as much greenhouse gas as Shell’s scenario suggests, it would lead to global temperatures rising well beyond the agreed Paris range….

…Rather than reducing its emissions, Shell plans to offset gigatonnes of emissions by planting trees to capture carbon. It says that reforestation and other nature-based technology will be enough to allow its expanding operations. But Shell’s Sky scenario requires a forest the size of Brazil to offset the volume of carbon it intends to continue pumping out.

Offsetting carbon emissions with forest growth at this scale is a dangerous fantasy. There’s limited land and water available for tree planting: if Shell plants this many trees, it risks diverting land we need to feed a growing population. And science tells us it is simply not possible to substitute carbon emissions from coal, oil and gas, with unstable ‘green’ carbon sinks in trees and soil.