Source: Carbon Commentary newsletter
1, Renewables growth. The IEA increased its forecasts for the installation of renewables. In 2020 it projected a rise of 1,300 GW over the next five years but it now expects over 1,800 GW of new capacity. About 60% of this increase is forecast to be in China, which will be by far the most important market for wind and solar. Other areas are expected to see new installations that are about 20% more than in last year forecast. Commentators saw the new IEA numbers as indications that the Agency has become notably more optimistic about future growth rates. This is probably an incorrect interpretation. All that has happened, as is frequently the case, is that the Agency was obliged to update its projections to reflect the unexpectedly high growth rate in 2021. In 2020, it had suggested that this year would see additions of about 225 GW. It has turned to be about 290 GW. The new increase in 2022-2026 projections is simply a reflection of the inaccuracy of the forecast for the current year.
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