Intensity – by Bill McKibben – The Crucial Years

Source: Intensity – by Bill McKibben – The Crucial Years

Nearly 70 percent of the planet’s landmass, and nearly 90 percent of its population, is in the northern hemisphere. That means that the next six or eight weeks encompass the hottest days on planet earth each year, as we straddle the summer solstice on this side of the equator—the hottest days usually follow the solstice by a week or three, as the heat accumulates from all that sunlight on land and sea. Last year, in early July, we had the string of what researchers are certain were the hottest days the earth had seen in the last 125,000 years. Since then we’ve had twelve straight months of all-time records; we learned earlier today that May joined that list….

Heat like this kills people, obviously—and when eventually total mortality statistics are analyzed, it will turn out that it killed many many more than we now know, people whose hearts simply gave out. But most people won’t die—there are 35 million people in Delhi, and most will live to endure the almost unimaginable, day after day. I’ve spent a fair amount of time there over the years—it’s a leafy city, and home to some of the world’s most moving monuments, above all the Raj Ghat, where Gandhi was cremated. But it’s also badly polluted, filled with the smoke from cars and auto-rickshaws, cooking fires and factories; the last time I was there you couldn’t see the giant Indian flag at Connaught Place from across the street.

And now—now it’s very like hell. It’s hard enough if you’re rich. Nitin Singh, a lawyer, told his story to the Guardian: “My home has three air conditioners, but frequent power outages have left me helpless,” said Singh. “A two-hour power outage last night compelled me to reserve a hotel room for my sick father and kids. My wife and I spent the majority of the night on our home’s terrace, and we had trouble falling asleep even for a few hours.” But most Delhiites are very very poor.

…

But here’s the thing: At the exact same moment—the same string of months—that the planet is beginning to unravel, human beings are finally accelerating the only real response we have: the rapid rollout of sun, wind, and batteries. The rate at which we’re adding renewable energy capacity jumped fifty percent last year. A new report this week found that wind and sun aren’t just growing faster than fossil fuels—they’re growing faster than any electricity source in history.

The rise of wind and solar has been stemming the growth of fossil fuel power, which would have been 22% higher in 2023 without them, Ember says. This would have added around 4bn tonnes of carbon dioxide (GtCO2) to annual global emissions.

Nevertheless, the growth of clean electricity sources needs to accelerate to meet the global goal of tripling renewables by 2030, Ember says. 

Meeting this goal would almost halve power sector emissions by the end of the decade, and put the world on a pathway aligned with the 1.5C climate target set in the Paris Agreement. 

Even in India, the share of electricity generated by coal dropped below 50 percent for the first time since 1966. There’s every sign that, globally, 2023 saw the peak in global emissions; all those solar panels are not just accounting for growth in energy demand any more, but beginning to cut into the actual consumption of fossil fuels. Now the job is to make the decline so steep that we build enough momentum to begin catching up with the physics of global warming.

It is a terrible story, almost unbearably tragic. But its ending hasn’t been written yet.

…